CIA Global Demographics Essay

During the period till 2015 situation development in the world will be defined by a condition and tendencies in following seven areas: a demography, natural resources and environment, world economy and globalization, the national and international government, the nature of conflicts, a role of the USA. These tendencies will influence possibilities of the countries, their priorities and behavior and, thereby, to define a condition of the international safety.
During the period since 2000 on 2015 the earth population will increase from 6,1 billion to 7,2 billion the people. However the population growth rate will decline. So, in 1980 they were 1,7 % a year, in 2000 – 1,3 %, and in 2015 will drop to 1 % per year.
The increase in life expectancy and birth rate falling will lead to population aging in the advanced countries. Moreover, demographic tendencies in the different countries strongly differ. More than 95 % of an increase in population will occur at the expense of developing countries, basically at the expense of fast increase in urban population. The population of India by 2015 will increase from 900 million to more than 1,2 billion the person. The population of Pakistan will increase from 140 million to 195 million persons. In some countries of Africa with high percent of infection of the population AIDS predicts reduction of rates of increase in the population, despite high rates of birth rate. In Southern Africa during the period since 2000 on 2015 reduction of the population from 43,4 million to 38,7 million persons, for example, is expected. The population of Japan and countries of Western Europe, for example Italy and Spain, will decrease also under condition of absence of essential increase in birth rate and emigration. The population of the North America, Australia and New Zealand (the countries most attractive now for emigration) will continue to increase the highest rates among developing countries – the annual gain in them will make from 0,7 % to 1 %.
Distinctions of tendencies in demographic area, labor market globalization, political instability and conflicts will lead to extreme growth of population shift. Legal and illegal population shift is estimated now in 15 % of the population for more than 50 countries. This tendency will steadily increase and promote increase social and a political tension and, possibly, to influence national originality (because of the influence on a demography and economy).
Human population, as well as any other population of live beings originally was in an equilibrium state with inhabitancy. At a primitive society each containing relief was capable to support certain quantity of the population. So, roughly by the end of an epoch of a paleolith (about 15 thousand years BC) population reached 3 million persons, by the neolith end (2 thousand years BC) — 5 million.
Furthe increase in world population has become possible only when nature – converting activities. And the more intensely it was conducted, the faster growing population.
In works of Hajntsa a background of Fyorstera, S. P.Kapitsy, Michael Kremer, A. V.Korotayev and other scientists it is shown that growth of the population of the Earth, during last 100 thousand years (up to 60 — 70th years of the XX-th century), followed the hyperbolic law, that is absolute rates of increase of the population of the Earth in a tendency were proportional to a square of its number. Some of forecasts on the basis of this model had absolutely frightening character. They recognized that a mid-annual increase in population begins to increase both henceforth, and already in the middle of the XXI-st century on the Earth will be 50 billion people. The scenario for 2300 assumed increase in number of earth dwellers to 1 billon persons. Since 1989 began to decrease and absolute rates of a gain of population of the world that it is possible to consider as quite logical result of global demographic transition. According to this theory at growth of a standard of living there is a reduction of birth rate up to size, smaller a death rate. Thus, rates of increase of a world’s population are slowed down, and in the foreseeable future population of the Earth should be stabilized.
In today’s demographics various scenarios of this process are considered. Besides, they are constantly corrected according to observable tendencies.
Under the most adverse scenario it is supposed that the Globe population by 2050 will increase to 11,2 billion persons, to 2100 to 17,5, and by 2150 to 27 billion.
By the most optimistical – population at first will increase – to 7,7 billion persons by 2050, and then will decrease to 5,6 billion by 2100 and to 3.6 billion by 2250.
However the scenario most corresponding to observable dynamics reflects average between these extreme points a tendency – the Globe population will reach to 2050 – 9,4 billion persons, to 2100 – 10,4 billion and to 2150 – 10,8 billion.
So in essence in the memorandum strategy and tactics of war of the new sample are presented. And unlike wars nuclear, chemical or bacteriological DEMOGRAPHIC WAR ALREADY goes. Americans have understood it very long time ago. Even in the spring of 1989 on magazine pages «Washington Kuoterli» in article «Global demographic tendencies to 2010 in aspect of safety of the USA» the Pentagon was openly called for that the program status on working out of new types of weapon has been given «population planning». («Global Demografie Trends to the Year 2010: Inplications for U. S. Security», Washington Quarterly, Spring 1989).
So, according to last researches of FAO (http://www.fao.org): «There is a lot of earth for agricultural use. An order of 1560 million in hectare could be added to present 1,4 billion in hectare of arable lands. More than half of available additional earths are located in Africa and Latin America. On these regions the majority of the earths is necessary, is better cultures approaching for cultivation with a rain irrigation»
Thus, it is clear that shortage of the foodstuffs occurs not because of shortage of resources, and because of their irrational use. To eliminate the given problem follows the complex system methods including not only the financial, technical and technological help, but also measures on political development of the backward states. Without it the help is in many respects lost because of corruption and the irrational appendix. It is not excluded that the world community should incur some functions on control over food safety in these states.